The New York Times has trumpeted the clarion call that the U.S. fertility rate has fallen yet again. Its article of April 9 is a fair representation of the collective hand-wringing that the main-stream media has subsequently embraced (see here, here, and here) since the release earlier this month of the CDC’s 2025 Vital Statistics report.
In its report the CDC registered both a decline in the fertility rate and a 1% decrease of total births from 2025 to 2024 – there were 3,606,400 provisional births in 2025 as opposed to 3,628,934 births in 2024. When compared to the number of births in 2007, there have been 710,000 fewer births. NPR reported this to represent a 23% decline in the nation’s fertility rate since 2005.
Commensurate with this data, the CDC reported that the overall fertility rate has fallen as well as the overall birth rate across all ages since 1991.
The difference between birth rate and fertility rate is a subtle one. The CDC defines the birth rate as the number of live births per 1,000 population, whereas the fertility rate is defined as the total number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age. And of course, fertility is defined as the ability to conceive or to become impregnated.
What truly amazes is that in no way whatsoever do the “experts” ever take into consideration the fact that the occurrence of conception would imply fertility and thereby impact our national “fertility rate.”
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Consider the effect on the data if all the “fertile” women who underwent an abortion in any given year were included in the total fertility rate. Doing so would create an unwanted and awkward discordance. While the fertility rate would be accurate, the resulting birth rate would point to the obvious – abortion is no longer a personal matter. This discordance would shine a spotlight on the obvious truth that abortion is no longer on the precipice of becoming a societal problem, it is a societal problem.
Where are the Al Gores and Greta Thunbergs of the world when our society needs them to warn us of the impending doom these numbers portend?
It's just a mystery
CNN calls the falling birth rate a potential “economic drag.” The New York Times, in its April 9 article, appropriately points out that a shrinking population can disrupt societal balance and threaten social safety nets by not having enough workers and taxpayers to support an aging population. The author goes on to state, “The fertility rate has fallen since 2007, a trend that has become something of a demographic mystery.” [emphasis added]
NPR, not to be left behind in speculating a cause, stated on April 9:
“There’s no consensus over why women and couples have shifted their behavior so significantly. Some experts point to economic factors, others say cultural influences, and better access to education and contraception for women are driving the change.”
Let the numbers speak
As the CDC reported, there were 3,606,400 reported births in 2025. Consider the fact that according to the 2025 Guttmacher Institute report, there were an estimated 1,126,000 clinician-provided abortions last year alone. If one adds – which no one ever does – the total number of reported births and the estimated number of abortions, it would come to a total of 4,732,400 pregnancies during the 2025 calendar year.
The true data regarding abortions is elusive. Not only is the Guttmacher data based upon voluntary reporting, its data does not include all 50 states. In addition, it is impossible to determine the total number of misoprostol/mifepristone chemically induced abortions (both DIY and facility provided) performed in the United States. Nonetheless, utilizing the above numbers, it can be easily determined that 23.7% of possible pregnancies in 2025 were terminated.
Let that number sink in – that’s nearly one-fourth off ALL pregnancies. The 23.7% number would only increase if the absolute true number of abortions were taken into account.
What is not a mystery is that in reading the recent flurry of mainstream media releases referencing the April CDC Vital Statistics Report, not a single outlet mentions the word abortion as a possible causation for the declining birth rate.
Tweet This: Not a single news outlet mentions the word abortion as a possible causation for the declining birth rate in the U.S.
Several of the outlets dance around the issue by referring to reproductive choice, delayed childbearing, and reproductive autonomy as contributing, if not the main reason for the decline.
Where does this leave us? More importantly, where does this leave the media?
At some point in time, and not in the far-distant future, they are going to have to admit that which they refuse to discuss or acknowledge – that our country may very well be aborting itself into extinction.
Indeed, in 1962 when Peter, Paul, and Mary famously sang on their debut album, “…Where have all the young girls gone, long time passing, where have all the young girls gone, long time ago…” who knew just how prescient they’d turn out to be?
Editor's note: Dr. Lloyd Holm is a retired OB/GYN and former President of the Iowa State Board of Health and former executive director of a pregnancy resource center in Wisconsin. A previous contributor to Pregnancy Help News, his writings have also appeared in The Federalist, Our Iowa, The Omaha World-Herald, Obstetrics and Gynecology, the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Iowa Medicine, The Female Patient, and the on-line networking platform for medical professionals, Doximity.
